EAC under Museveni:  Time for Federation

Wilfred Arinda Nshekantebirwe/ Courtesey Photo

By Wilfred Arinda Nshekantebirwe

President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s assumption of the East African Community (EAC) chairmanship on 7 March 2026 presents a renewed opportunity to advance the vision he has long championed. And that is one East African Community. Could this finally be the moment for East Africa to become one state?

Museveni has consistently argued that fragmented African states remain weak, while a united East Africa can be “a centre of gravity for the black race,” capable of industrialising, defending itself, and negotiating as equals with superpowers.

With eight Partner States and a population exceeding 340 million people, the East African Community already rivals the population of the United States and is more than double that of Russia, giving it enormous demographic weight if economic integration deepens. The untapped mineral and energy riches could make the region wealthier than many G20 nations per capita if processed locally, alongside a demographic trajectory that will create the largest youthful market on Earth.

Evidence shows that deeper regional integration has become an economic and geopolitical necessity. With President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni now chairing the East African Community, the opportunity to advance this long-standing vision has arrived. Consider, first, the sheer scale of East Africa’s human capital.

The EAC’s total population stands at approximately 343 million in 2026, already larger than Russia’s 143.4 million and virtually equal to the United States’ projected 349 million. By 2050, our population will surge to 647 million, a 69% increase from 2023 levels. That single bloc will outnumber the combined populations of the United States and Russia today by more than 150 million people. It will represent nearly a quarter of Africa’s entire population and constitute one of the three largest youthful markets on the planet. This is a demographic dividend that no other region can match. While Europe and East Asia age rapidly, East Africa’s working-age population will explode, providing the labour force, consumers, and innovators to drive the next industrial revolution, if we integrate.

Economically, the EAC’s combined nominal GDP is projected at roughly $400–430 billion in 2026 (IMF figures: Kenya $130–140B, Tanzania $85–95B, DRC $70–85B, Uganda $72B, Rwanda $15B, Somalia $14B, Burundi $9B, South Sudan ~$6B). East Africa is forecast to grow at 5.8% in 2026, the fastest rate on the continent and well above the African average of 4.0%. Intra-regional trade, though still only 12–15% of total trade, is accelerating fast: in Q3 2025 alone, total EAC merchandise trade reached $40.3 billion (up 21.9%), while intra-EAC trade hit $4.8 billion (15% growth). Earlier in Q1 2025, intra-EAC trade had surged 53.6% to over $5 billion. Gravity-model studies confirm that full protocol implementation, plus linkage to the African Continental Free Trade Area, could add another $1.9 billion in annual exports.

A single customs territory would slash the 100+ non-tariff barriers that still choke traders and cut transport costs by up to 30% via completed Standard Gauge Railway corridors and the Northern Corridor.

The Democratic Republic of Congo alone holds over 70% of the world’s known cobalt reserves, the critical mineral for electric-vehicle batteries and the green energy transition. Uganda’s oil production (230,000 barrels per day via the EACOP pipeline, coming as early as mid-to-late 2026) will generate $1–2.5 billion in annual revenue. Tanzania and Kenya add vast natural gas reserves, while South Sudan, Burundi, and Rwanda contribute gold, tin, tantalum, tungsten, and coltan. Across the bloc, we sit on 30% of Africa’s mineral wealth, significant oil and gas deposits, and arable land capable of feeding hundreds of millions. Today, these resources are largely exported raw, generating limited local wealth. Unified under one market and one set of investment rules, we can build regional value chains: refine Congolese cobalt into batteries, process Ugandan oil in East African refineries, and market a single East African tourist visa that bundles Kenya’s beaches, Tanzania’s Serengeti, Uganda’s gorillas, and Rwanda’s volcanoes.

Manufacturing could rise from 10-20% of GDP to 25% by 2050; agriculture could eliminate our 20-million-ton food deficit (projected to grow without modernisation), and energy pooling could slash costs region-wide.

A 343-million-person bloc today, scaling to 647 million, speaking with one voice at the African Union, WTO, and in deals with China, Europe, the Gulf, or the United States, carries negotiating weight no single member state possesses. Foreign direct investment, already exceeding $20 billion recently, would surge as investors see a seamless 340-million-consumer market rather than eight fragmented economies. A monetary union would eliminate exchange-rate risks and transaction costs; a political federation would deliver collective security, addressing conflicts in eastern DRC and al-Shabaab threats that currently cost billions in lost investment and defence spending.

Museveni’s emphasis on “wealth creators” and big markets signals exactly this path: complete the Single Customs Territory, fast-track the monetary union roadmap, enforce the new 2026/27-2030/31 EAC Development Strategy, and keep the federation goal alive.

Beyond population and natural resources, East Africa’s rise would be driven by the structural foundations of integration already taking shape across the region. Major cross-border infrastructure projects, including the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), the LAPSSET transport corridor linking Kenya, Ethiopia and South Sudan, and expanding regional power pools, are beginning to physically connect a market of more than 340 million people. At the same time, the East African Monetary Union roadmap, targeting a common currency by 2031, growing digital financial integration, and rapidly expanding cities such as Nairobi, Dar es Salaam, Kinshasa, and Kampala are reshaping the region into one of the world’s fastest-urbanising economic zones.

With President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni now chairing the East African Community, the moment has arrived to accelerate these efforts and turn his decades-long vision of a united East Africa into reality. If paired with investments in education, industrial skills, and technology to harness a youthful population projected to exceed 640 million by 2050, these reforms could transform the EAC from a collection of fragmented states into one of the world’s largest and most dynamic integrated consumer and production markets.

President Museveni has reminded us for decades that what God has put together, let no man put asunder. The statistics now prove it beyond doubt, our population already rivals America’s and dwarfs Russia’s, our resources could make us wealthier than many developed blocs if harnessed together, and our growth trajectory positions us as Africa’s undisputed engine. The EAC now has the leader and the moment. Let’s finally become one.

The writer is the LC5 Male Workers’ Councillor for Rubanda District

 Wilfredarinda@gmail.com

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