PROTECTING THE GAINS: FROM POST 1986 – RECOVERY, PROMISES, AND PARADOXES

By Akansasira Junior Victor, Writer and Researcher,

vj.akansasira@gmail.com 0702969211 / 0785499836

“Protecting the Gains is not just about peace and roads. It’s about protecting the soul of Uganda’s progress from corruption, complacency, and regression.”* Tr. Kamurasi Ricky Rickide, Mwangaza ( NALI Intake 1).

Dear compatriots, As we delve deeply into the slogan *“Protecting the Gains”*, one must stubbornly question: “Whose gains? Which gains?” By the end of this piece, perhaps these rhetorical questions will find their answers. This phrase is not merely a political campaign slogan or a camouflage for *“Securing their future*”, as some disoriented comrades claim. It is a political concept deeply rooted in the National Resistance Movement’s historical narrative of Uganda’s post-1986 recovery and transformation. The slogan took centre stage in the NRM’s 2026–2031 manifesto, presented as a blueprint to consolidate peace, infrastructure, service delivery, and economic transformation achieved under the Movement’s stewardship. The manifesto explicitly defines the next phase as safeguarding hard-won accomplishments while propelling Uganda toward high middle-income status.

Before 1986, Uganda endured grave political unrest and humanitarian crises. Under Idi Amin (1971–1979), about 300,000 people were killed (Daily Monitor, 2022). The NRA/NRM’s Bush War (1981–1986) claimed 100,000–500,000 lives, culminating in a new dawn of governance and security. After 1986, the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) restored order, defeating major insurgencies such as the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), which killed 500,000 and displaced 2 million (PLOS Currents, 2014; GlobalSecurity.org, 2006). UPDF-led disarmament in Karamoja recovered thousands of illegal arms, curbing cattle rustling (Defence.go.ug, 2024).

Regional and International Peace Contributions

Externally, Uganda’s deployment of over 12,000 troops to AMISOM/ATMIS in Somalia earned UN and AU recognition for stabilizing Mogadishu (AllAfrica, 2025; UPDF.go.ug, 2024). Joint Operation Shujaa in the DRC continues to neutralize ADF rebels. SPARC (2022) reports post-war recovery in Northern Uganda, highlighting reduced deaths and improved livelihoods. These milestones affirm peace and stability as NRM’s most visible gain, achieved through the UPDF’s decisive regional role. In fact, IMF reports on the structural reform period (1987–1994) show Uganda’s real economic growth averaged 5.7% annually, following years of economic stagnation.

*Economic Growth Anchored in Ideology Guided by H.E. Gen. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s four ideological pillars—Patriotism, Pan-Africanism,Socioeconomic Transformation, and Democracy.* Uganda has witnessed sweeping economic reform and sectoral growth. Since 1986, Uganda’s GDP structure has shifted remarkably. In FY 2022/23, the services sector contributed 42.4% of GDP, industry 26.0%, and agriculture 23.8% (UBOS statistics). Growth in agriculture, forestry, and fishing stood at 4.8–5.0%, with livestock (8.9%) and fishing (7.7%) particularly strong. Overall economic growth for FY 2023/24 was 6.0–6.6%, with projections for FY 2024/25 reaching 6.9%, driven by services, agriculture, industry, and increased household consumption.

The Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV) and Vision 2040.Looking ahead, Uganda’s Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV, FY 2025/26–2029/30) projects GDP growth to rise from 6.2–6.6% to 10.1% by FY 2029/30. Nominal GDP is expected to surge from USD 53.2 billion (FY 2023/24) to USD 158 billion by FY 2029/30, with per-capita income increasing from USD 1,146 to USD 2,008. NDP IV prioritizes industrialization using local raw materials, agro-industrialization, tourism development, mineral value addition, strategic infrastructure (transport, energy, ICT), youth skilling through vocational hubs, and full monetization of the economy.

Export Growth and Industrial Momentum. Uganda’s exports especially agricultural products have flourished. Coffee exports alone were valued at US$918 million in 2022–2023, reflecting significant progress since the fragmented export systems of the pre-NRM era. Such export resilience has been anchored in improved infrastructure, enhanced production capacity, and consistent policy direction.

Infrastructure has become the backbone of Uganda’s development story. In 1986, Uganda had approximately 1,000 km of paved roads. By 2024, the figure had expanded to over 6,000 km—a six-fold increase. In 2018, Finance Minister Matia Kasaija reported 5,350 km of paved roads compared to 987 km in 1986. Between 2016–2021, government allocated UGX 22,935 billion to roads and bridges. In the energy sector, electrification has risen dramatically—from 7% of the population in 1986 to 47–51% in the early 2020s (on-grid and off-grid). These transformations have powered industries, supported households, and boosted digital connectivity.

According to New Vision (May 16 and October 3, 2025), Uganda has made substantial educational gains since 1986. The introduction of Universal Primary Education (UPE) in 1997 and Universal Secondary Education (USE) in 2007 expanded access to millions. As of 2023/24: Gross primary enrolment: 119.5% (up from 116.8% in 2016/17). Net enrolment: 77.9%. Primary pupils: 8.9 million (5.83 million in the 6–12 age group). Secondary students: 4.57 million (2.19 million aged 13–18). Despite progress, secondary gross enrolment has fallen from 37.9% to ~33.6%. At the tertiary level, Uganda now boasts 58 universities (10 public, 48 private). In 2024, 92,273 students qualified for university, with 54,338 (59%) scoring three principal passes. While access has grown impressively, quality assurance, infrastructure, and equity remain areas demanding reform. Still, Uganda’s human capital is steadily expanding—a vital “gain” to protect.

Uganda’s integration into regional and global markets has deepened. Improved road corridors and border facilities have boosted trade within the East African Community (EAC) and African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). These networks have lowered export costs and increased competitiveness, connecting Uganda’s producers to continental value chains.

Protecting the Gains and Sustaining Momentum deserves the need to preserve these achievements. Uganda must sustain: Investment in road maintenance alongside new construction; transparent budget allocations and fiscal discipline; strengthened power infrastructure and renewable energy systems; enhanced education quality and teacher capacity; transparent mineral and extractive governance; rural inclusion and equitable service delivery. These steps are vital to translate macroeconomic gains into inclusive, people-centred growth.

*The Paradox: Corruption and Public Mistrust*

Yet, amid the achievements lies a crippling paradox—the persistence of corruption, mismanagement, and institutional decay. Since 1986, oversight agencies have reported consistent financial hemorrhage. The Auditor-General’s 2023/24 report exposed irregularities such as the UGX 25 billion iron sheets scandal, widespread procurement lapses, and value-for-money failures across MDAs. The Inspectorate of Government (IGG) reported UGX 30 billion lost in FY 2023/24, with only UGX 27.8 billion recovered. Independent analyses estimate Uganda loses UGX 9.7 trillion annually to corruption. Transparency International (2024) rated Uganda 26/100 on the Corruption Perception Index (CPI). The World Bank/OurWorldInData Gini Index further exposes deepening inequality. Although sporadic prosecutions—like the 2024 cases against three MPs—make headlines, they rarely translate into systemic reform. For context, Kenya scores 32 on CPI, while Rwanda’s mid-50s ranking illustrates the power of institutional integrity. Corruption erodes service delivery, inflates costs, deters investment, and reverses Uganda’s hard-won gains.

As I conclude, In Reform to Protect the Gains, there is need

to consolidate the progress of the past decades and truly protect the gains. Uganda’s next NRM administration must;

Reinforce the independence of the IGG and Auditor-General’s offices to ensure impartial oversight and prosecution; prosecute economic saboteurs and strengthen laws for recovery of stolen public assets; establish transparent public asset recovery mechanisms integrated with digital audit trails; implement nationwide e-procurement systems with real-time audit features for all MDAs.

These reforms will enhance accountability, deter corruption, and protect national progress. They align seamlessly with Vision 2040 and NDP IV goals, ensuring that Uganda’s transformation remains not just a promise, but a reality—guarded, refined, and sustained for generations.